The business end of the G.J. Gardner Homes Tauihi season has arrived and the race to the 2024 championship will be run and won in just three games. With four teams remaining in contention, this week's semi-finals will narrow the field to two championship contenders.
For the first time in Tauihi history, this year's finals will be played on home courts, providing fans with an added opportunity to see their team in action. Even better, all four teams are capable of winning it and they are all just one win away from playing in the grand final.
However, come December 23 only one team will be celebrating (except for maybe Christmas)! Here's a snapshot of how each of the four teams can win the 2024 title, and how they can lose it.
ProBuild ITM Mainland Pouākai
Position: 1st / 8 wins - 4 losses
Key Stat: won their last 5 games, including two against their semi-final opponent (Queens).
How They Can Win
The Pouākai must play to their strengths - defend well, spread the floor at the offensive end, get the ball through hands, and crash the boards. This is a well-drilled team, and they have hit top form through the bask half of the season, but finals are a whole new ball game and they will now need to go to another level to win the championship. While the shooting of McKenzie Forbes is important, it will be the work-rate at both end by Haleigh Reinoehl, Cassandra Brown and Esra McGoldrick that push the Pouākai to victory - the Pouākai must get the best out of their triple-pronged forward defence/attack if they are going to win it all.
How They Can Lose
As strange as it sounds (given current form) this is a team that cannot afford to have any weak links. Sharne Robati plays a crucial sixth-player role, and does it really well, but the minutes beyond the team's core six are fairly non-existent. If the Pouākai suffer any foul trouble or injuries to their top six players then they might fall short of a maiden championship.
BNZ Northern Kāhu
Position: 2nd / 7 wins - 5 losses
Key Stat: Iimar'I Thomas is shooting at 55% - better than any player in the competition scoring 7pts or more per game
How They Can Win
The Kāhu packs a triple punch like no other team, including this year's favourite for the Tauihi MVP, Iimar'I Thomas. Together with Penina Davidson and Tahlia Tupaea, Thomas forms a trio of near unstoppable offensive weapons and if they all fire together in a game, the Kāhu rarely (if ever) get beaten. While Tupaea does little outside of scoring (by way of rebounds and assists), the fact is she is arguably the best three-point shooter in the competition and when she is hot there isn't a player who can score as quickly as her (next closest is Ashley Joens at the Whai). If at least one of this dynamic trio can't be contained, then the championship is the Kāhu's to lose.
How They Can Lose
We have seen a few cracks at times from the 2023 champions throughout the 2024 season, and it usually comes when there is a momentum swing (against them) and too much of their attention turns to the whistle. The Kāhu must stay composed when the opposition gets on a run and look to Krystal Leger-Walker for her leadership and strong composure - when things aren't going their way, get KLW on the floor in a hurry. Of course, in reverse to how they can win, the Kāhu are so reliant on Thomas, Tupaea and Davidson that if one (or more) of the dynamic trio has an off day/night, coming out on top might prove difficult. They are definitely susceptible if their lethal trio don't all fire.
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai
Position: 3rd / 6 wins - 6 losses
Key Stat: the Whai are 1-5 with McKenna Dale coming off the bench this season, and 5-1 with McKenna Dale starting.
How They Can Win
Run, run, run. The offensive firepower this team possesses is next level, and relentless. The Whai’s greenlight approach to anything that looks like even half an opportunity to score has them playing with extreme confidence, and opposition teams are struggling to contain them. More of the same will be the demand from coaching staff, a dedicated focus to running at all costs, being disruptive defensively, and firing at will from long range are high priorities. And let’s be very clear – if the Whai can convert their three-point attempts at a good clip during the finals, then they are the team to beat – it is a weapon no other team has. Between Ashley Joens, Morgan Yaeger, McKenna Dale, Mikayla Cowling and Laina Snyder, the mid to long range shooting ability of this team is off the charts.
How They Can Lose
If opposition teams can slow the game and force the Whai to play longer offensive sets, mistakes are likely to creep in and this is where the Whai could come undone. This team wants to get out and run, and they are quite handy in defensive transition as well, so making them play longer sets is something they won't want. The other danger for them is if they have an off-shooting night from outside the arc. They are so reliant on the three-ball that if those shots aren’t dropping the confidence will fall and it can quickly become infectious against a good defensive team. The Whai will live and die by the three-ball.
ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens
Position: 4th / 6 wins - 6 losses
Key Stat: since being 19 points up with 12 minutes to play against their semi-final opponent (Pouākai) in the first game they met this season, the Pouākai has won 7 of their next 9 quarters of basketball against the Queens.
How They Can Win
The Queens can win it all because they have the most credentialled and talented player in the competition, but more on that shortly. While it might be easy to discount the Queens from the championship conversation after they limped into the finals with four losses from their last five games (mind you the R10 win against the Kāhu was an emphaic return to form), you need to remember the Queens did have a 5-2 start to the season and were the top scoring team for most of the journey. WNBA star Jordan Horston has had to battle a few injuries but looks to be fit and healthy at the right end of the season, and if she fires then the Queens are more than capable of turning their form around. The Queens will also go into the Final 4 with the underdog tag, and you can't help but feel it suits them perfectly. Expectations of another title have slipped quickly over the last month, but that could prove a blessing in disguise – no expectations mean a free swing. To win it all the Queens will need Horston to rise to another level, which she is capable of doing, and perhaps second and third on-ball screens for her would help, especially if it helps to open driving lanes for their star player (this is an area the Queens have fallen short in). And mark this down - if captain Stella Beck has a big fortnight then the Queens could return to the throne once more.
How They Can Lose
Defence, defence, defence. The Queens leak points, especially to opposition guards – every team knows it and they are all loading up for a feast. If the Queens can’t stop opposition guards from scoring, then this won’t be their year. Rebounding numbers have also dropped in recent weeks, the self-sacrifice to be relentless and work harder on the boards has lowered across the roster. And there looks to be an inability to adapt and pivot quickly when opposition momentum occurs, especially at the offensive end where creativity has dried up over the second half of the season. If the Queens can’t get Jordan Horston and Jihyun Park going in offence, and if they can’t work out their flaws in defence, then they will be watching from their loungeroom on Sunday December 22.
