The G.J. Gardner Homes Tauihi 2024 season has easily been the most competitive since the pro-league starting in 2022, with every team being on the right or wrong side of an upset at some stage. Every coach will tell you - if you don't bring your 'A-Game' then you're in for a tough day at the office.
One of the grueling outcomes of each Tauihi season is five teams won't fit into four, and that's what makes the race to the Final 4 so much fun - and with two regular season rounds remaining all five teams are still in the hunt.
Sky Sport commentator Justin Nelson picks apart the six remaining games ahead of this year's Final 4 and how the final ladder could, should and possibly will end up ... or will it?
BNZ Northern Kāhu
Position: 1st
Record: 6 wins / 4 losses
Remaining Games: Hoiho (away), Queens (home - Whangarei)
Prediction: The Kāhu hold top spot due to a vastly superior points percentage over the Pouākai (116 vs 95) - which is the benefit of having a high performing Rapid League team. The Kāhu have gone a different route with Rapid League, largely preferring to play experienced campaigners over young rising talent, and while it's probably not the best long-term strategy (time will tell) it has helped their Tauihi team get to the top. The race for a home final now looks to have come down to three teams, and the Kāhu look best placed. Current form is important, and while it hasn't been a great stretch for the Kāhu with three losses in four games, a win against the Hoiho in R9 will lock in a home final and that's the key priority right now. As far as a prediction goes, the expectation is the Kāhu will win at least one more game and will get a home final - from there, the championship is theirs to lose, they have been the frontrunners all season and rightfully are championship favourites from this point.
ProBuild ITM Mainland Pouākai
Position: 2nd
Record: 6 wins / 4 losses
Remaining Games: Hoiho (home), Queens (home)
Prediction: This is a team playing with no fear and that must be a worry to all others. While the roster isn't as deep as other contenders, the quality amongst their core six is as good as any team, especially when they are locked in at both ends of the court. Importantly, both the Kāhu and Queens have stumbled twice each against Paul Flynn's team and that will sit comfortably in the Pouākai's memory bank. There is no reason to think the Pouākai won't win their remaining two games - both are at home and both are against opposition they are playing better than. Importantly, a win against the Queens in R10 (provided they win in R9 against the Hoiho) will cement a top-two finish and a home final. Hard to see them finishing below second and they are the biggest championship threat to the Kāhu.
ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens
Position: 3rd
Record: 5 wins / 4 losses
Remaining Games: Whai (home - Palmerston North), Pouākai (away), Kāhu (away)
Prediction: The Queens have been their own worst enemy over the last fortnight, dropping games at home to the Hoiho and Pouākai, resulting in a likely drop to having to travel for a semi-final. The run home is tough, especially off the back of two straight losses and a nasty ankle injury to star Jordan Horston. To make the top two the Queens must win two of their last three games, and one of those wins must be against the Pouākai - if they win their next two then the final round clash with the Kāhu becomes somewhat irrlevant. If the Queens lose to the Whai this week and the Pouākai beats the Hoiho, the Queens will need to win both games in a very tough road double in R10 if they are to claim a home semi-final. In the wash-up, what it means is the Queens need to find wins in a hurry. If they lose all three games from here, which is very possible considering how close this competition is, they will be hoping the Hoiho lose at least one, preferably two, of their remaining games against the Pouākai, Kāhu and Whai (which are ironically the same three teams the Queens still have to play).
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai
Position: 4th
Record: 4 wins / 6 losses
Remaining Games: Queens (away), Hoiho (away)
Prediction: The Whai are finally at full strength and have found some recent form to start a charge up the ladder, and from here it would be a shock to see them miss the Final 4. Remaining games against the Queens and Hoiho are both winnable, and a finish in third or fourth is likely. However, a final round game against the Hoiho in the deep south looms as a big one and could well decide who grabs a Final 4 berth. If the Whai can beat the Queens in Palmrston North this Saturday it will take a heap of pressure off them and place it all squarely on the shoulders of the Hoiho. In sport they talk about destiny being in your own hands, and in the case of the Whai it couldn't be more accurate.
Southern Hoiho
Position: 5th
Record: 3 wins / 6 losses
Remaining Games: Pouākai (away), Kāhu (home), Whai (home)
Prediction: It's all uphill from here for the Hoiho, but the door to the Final 4 does remain ajar. Three wins will get them in, maybe even two wins if one of them is against the Whai in R10, but even that would require a near impossible shift in points percentage. The best-case scenario for the Hoiho is to win all three remaining games, next best outcome is to win two and hope the Whai lose both of their remaining games (one of which is against the Hoiho), while the outside scenario is to win two or three and hope the Queens keep spluttering. If somehow the Hoiho can find a way to beat both the Pouākai and Kāhu this week then the race to the Final 4 will be blown wide open. One loss in R9 will have the Hoiho teetering, two losses will mean their season is over.
The End Result
From here I expect the Kāhu and Pouākai to win their remaining games and lock in the top two spots, with points percentage giving the Kāhu top spot. Of the other three teams, I can't see the Whai losing to the Queens (R9) or the Hoiho (R10) based on current form, so they will get third, and I predict the Queens will lose all three of their remaining games and go into the finals on a five-game losing streak. Unfortunately, I can't see the Hoiho winning another game and they will miss the finals.
Based on the games remaining, my final ladder prediction is:
1st: Kāhu (8 wins/4 losses)
2nd: Pouākai (8 wins/4 losses)
3rd: Whai (6 wins/6 losses)
4th: Queens (5 wins/7 losses)
5th: Hoiho (3 wins/9 losses)
This will give us Semi-Finals between: Kāhu vs Queens / Pouākai vs Whai ... but of course, no for the first time, I could be completely wrong!
