Just one round of the G.J. Gardner Homes Tauihi 2024 season remains and the Final 4 teams are set with just the seeding left to be decided. The Kāhu look to have a top two seed in their grasp, withstanding some very unlikely scoring results, but where the remaining teams will end up with final seeding depends on the results of the 3 games left to be played. Remember after wins and losses the first tie breaker is points percentage, so even the Rapid League games will come into play during the final round because every bucket counts. Sky commentator Justin Nelson gives us his prediction of where the Final 4 team's seeding will land in this week's edition of Straight Shot.
BNZ Northern Kāhu
Current Position: 1st
Record: 7 wins / 4 losses
Points percentage: 117% (1253 points for, 1062 against, +191 points overall)
Remaining Games: Queens (home - Whangārei)
Analysis: The Kāhu haven't been as dominant this season (as previous seasons) and there are a few flaws they will be aware of, but to be fair the level of the competition has risen dramatically in T3 and it has become a much tougher league to navigate. However, a home semi-final is essentially locked in due to their massive points percentage advantage and that is a big box ticked, but an opponent is yet to be decided. Thanks to that massive points percentage advantage and depending on other results, the final game against the Queens could be a dead rubber, but it could also be a preview to a semi-final between the same two teams - making for an interesting approach for the squads. Based on current form, the Kāhu will be desperate to avoid both the Whai and Pouākai in the SFs, and with the Kāhu game against the Queens being the final regular season clash and likely deciding the Queens postseason position, they will know exactly what they do or don't need to do before tip-off - a handy position to be in.
ProBuild ITM Mainland Pouākai
Current Position: 2nd
Record: 7 wins / 4 losses
Points percentage: 97% (1191 points for, 1218 points against, -27 points overall)
Remaining Games: Queens (home)
Analysis: The Pouākai continue to get better every time they step on the floor, and seemingly out of nowhere they have stormed home to almost certainly lock-down a home semi-final. A final round clash (and win) against the Queens will secure a semi-final at Cowles Stadium, however a loss will provide some nervous moments watching the Sky TV coverage on Sunday when the Queens play the Kāhu. The positive news is the Pouākai have already beaten the Queens twice this season and hold no fear, plus they have McKenzie Forbes who has already torched the Queens in both meetings. A win sees the Pouākai land a home SF, and maybe even top spot if the Queens take take down the Kāhu in the final game of the year.
ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens
Current Position: 3rd
Record: 5 wins / 5 losses
Points percentage: 94% (1087 points for, 1167 points against, -80 points overall)
Remaining Games: Pouākai (away), Kāhu (away - Whangārei)
Analysis: The Queens have been their own worst enemy over the last fortnight, dropping games at home to the Hoiho and Pouākai, resulting in a possible drop to 3rd position and having to travel for a semi-final. The run home is tough, especially off the back of three straight losses and a nasty ankle injury to star Jordan Horston. To make the top two the Queens must win two their last two games of the final round against the Pouākai and Kāhu on the road in R10 if they are to claim a home semi-final. In the wash-up, what it means is the Queens need to find wins in a hurry to get right for the postseason. If they lose both games from here, which is very possible considering how close this competition is, they will be hoping the Hoiho pull out an upset over the Whai so they can avoid slumping to the 4th and final postseason seeding position.
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai
Current Position: 4th
Record: 5 wins / 6 losses
Points percentage: 105% (1244 points for, 1182 points against, +62 overall)
Remaining Games: Hoiho (away)
Analysis: The Whai have overcome early season injuries to thrust themselves into the championship chat and their big wins in Tauihi and Rapid have given them the 2nd best points percentage in the comp, but a top two seed is out of their reach even as they play their best basketball of the season. Despite that, a win over the Hoiho coupled with the Queens losing both games this round will move the Whai up to the 3rd seed and give them a slim possibility of a home final depending on post-season results going their way.
Southern Hoiho
Position: 5th
Record: 3 wins / 8 losses
Remaining Games: Whai (home)
Analysis: Will finish 5th and out of the post season regardless of result in their last game, but depending on results, can possibly affect seeding with a homecourt victory over the Whai.
Prediction of The End Result
From here I expect the Kāhu and Pouākai to win their remaining games and lock in the top two spots, with points percentage giving the Kāhu top overall seed and homecourt advantage for the entirety of their postseason stay. Of the other three teams, I can't see the Whai losing to the Hoiho based on current form, so they will get third, and if my final prediction that the Queens will lose their double header this round comes to fruition, and they will limp into the finals on a five-game losing streak as the 4th seed. Unfortunately, I can't see the Hoiho winning their final game so they won't have a say in seeding.
So based on the above , my final ladder prediction is:
1st: Kāhu (8 wins/4 losses)
2nd: Pouākai (8 wins/4 losses)
3rd: Whai (6 wins/6 losses)
4th: Queens (5 wins/7 losses)
5th: Hoiho (3 wins/9 losses)
This will give us Semi-Finals between: Kāhu vs Queens / Pouākai vs Whai ... but of course, and not for the first time, I could be completely wrong!
