YESTERDAY
The ProBuild ITM Mainland Pouākai claimed a home semi-final with yet another commanding win (87-70) over the ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens - the third time they have taken down the 2022 champions this season. Despite being back to full strength, the Queens were yet again torched by a guard, and yet again it was McKenzie Forbes. The WNBA-drafted shooting guard out of USC has feasted on the Queens this season, always scoring well above her season average (18.4pts per game) with yields of 25, 26 and 39. Such is her thirst for dismantling the Queens, the next top score of the season for Forbes in 20.
The Queens are now on a 4-game losing streak and face the Kāhu tomorrow. Amazingly, a stat to note - in the Queens first 7 games this season they conceded 78.1 points per game on average, however in their last 4 games (all losses) the average points against has ballooned to 92.3 points per game. Just as concerning, at the offensive end of the court in their last 2 game the Queens have averaged just 66.5 points per game.
The Pouākai will now host either the Queens of the Whai next Saturday night in Christchurch and depending on this Sunday's result between the Kāhu and Queens the southerners could even go into the Final 4 as the top seed.
TODAY
The 2024 season will be completed for the Southern Hoiho by the time their clash with The Norhern Group Tauranga Whai ends tonight, but the season will be reaching fever-pitch for the Whai and their fans as a maidan Tauihi championship beckons. It's hard to believe the Whai held a 1-5 record midway through the season, but here we are talking about an offensive powerhouse that both the Pouākai and Kāhu will be desperate to avoid in a semi-final.
If the Whai win tonight (which they should), and then the Kāhu win tomorrow (which they should) - the final ladder positions will read Kāhu, Pouākai, Whai, Queens. However, a slip either way and the semi-final match-up will likely change.
Zoe Richards (whiplash) and Samantha Bowman (shin) have already both been ruled out of tonight's game, leaving the Hoiho severely undersized against Lara McSpadden, Laina Snyder and Mikayla Cowling. Maybe the biggest question tonight centres on how the Whai approach the game. Yes, they will likely win. And yes, the win is likely going to be by double digits. But will the Whai take the foot off the pedal - will they spread the load and keep their stars fresh for the road ahead?
TOMORROW
The BNZ Northern Kāhu can take top spot on the ladder and enter the Final 4 as the top seed if they beat the Queens in the final game of the regular season. Do that, and they will almost certainly face the Queens in a semi-final. Based on current form, the Kāhu will be super keen to get the Queens in the SF and avoid the Whai - and they have the luxury of seeing how tonight's game in Dunedin plays out before worrying about what they need (or don't need) to do to get the SF clash they desire.
So far these two rivals have split their two games, and both contests have been close. The Kāhu has an enormous reliance on three players (Davidson, Tupaea, Thomas) and provided they all continue to perform over the next fortnight then the Kāhu will be the team to beat.
In this game, the last of the regular season, expect a Kāhu win, which will send the Queens to the finals on an unthinkable 5-game losing streak (remember they were at 5-2 and top of the ladder at one stage). The best outcome here for the Queens is to find some confidence, especially defensively, an area they excelled in last time they played the Kāhu - holding them to just 67 points.
