The Probuild ITM Mainland Pouākai vs The Northern Group Tauranga Whai
Sunday December 14th, 3pm Cowles Stadium Christchurch
Watch NZ: Sky Open & Sky Sport 2, USA: ESPN 3, Worldwide: FIBA YouTube
One game left after ten rounds of regular season action, two semi-finals and a whole lot of plot twists have whittled Tauihi down to two contenders: the league’s most explosive offense against its stingiest defense.
The Mainland Pouākai surged past Southern Hoiho 99–92 in a shootout of a semi-final, riding a barrage of threes and a dominant night on the glass. The defending champion Whai, went on the road and stunned top-seeded Tokomanawa Queens 82-76, overturning a 17-point deficit behind what is sure to become a vintage second-half flurry.
Now they meet with the trophy on the line and since styles make fights it’s about as perfect a clash as you could ask for stylistically.
Team comparison
| Stat | Mainland Pouākai | Whai |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8–5, 2nd on points % | 8–5, 4th on points % |
| Scoring Offense | 89.1 ppg (1st) | 81.8 ppg (4th) |
| Scoring Defense | 83.5 ppg allowed (3rd) | 78.2 ppg allowed (1st) |
| Scoring Margin | +5.54 (1st) | +3.62 (2nd) |
| FG% | 43% (3rd) | 41% (4th) |
| FG% Defense | 42% allowed (3rd) | 41% allowed (1st) |
| 3P% | 34% (2nd) | 33% (3rd) |
| 3PM per game | 10.9 (1st) | 10.0 (2nd) |
| FT% | 74% (3rd) | 82% (1st) |
| Rebounds per game | 47.5 rpg (1st) | 42.6 rpg (3rd) |
| Opponent Rebounds | 41.1 rpg allowed (2nd) | 43.2 rpg allowed (4th) |
| Def Reb % | 77% (1st) | 72% (3rd) |
| Off Reb % | 31% (2nd) | 28% (4th) |
| Rebounding Margin | +6.5 (1st) | –0.6 (4th) |
| Assists per game | 20.5 apg (2nd) | 20.3 apg (3rd) |
| Turnover Margin | -1.62 (last) | +0.69 (2nd) |
| Blocks per game | 4.8 bpg (1st) | 3.5 bpg (3rd) |
| Game | Venue | Result | Top Whai Performers | Top Pouākai Performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Cowles Stadium | Whai 85 def Pouākai 77 | Hank 31 pts, Snyder 12 pts / 5 ast, McDowell-White 13 pts / 6 ast | Whittle 16 pts, Yaeger 15 pts |
| 18 Oct | Cowles Stadium | Whai 102 def Pouākai 93 | Snyder 30 pts / 13 reb / 6 ast, McDowell-White 23 pts / 12 ast, Hank 16 pts | Yaeger 25 pts / 6 ast, Whittle 24 pts / 12 reb, Fogg 14 pts |
| 16 Nov | Queen Elizabeth Youth Centre | Pouākai 68 def Whai 63 | Cowling 13 pts / 4 ast, Hank 11 pts / 5 reb / 3 ast | Dale 21 pts / 15 reb, Hall 15 pts / 6 reb, Mikesell 13 pts |
Whai hold the 2-1 edge, but Pouākai own the most recent win with the first two matches happening in October and perhaps most interesting, the road team has grabbed the win in each game.
The Pouākai bring the offensive fireworks and have been the most potent scoring outfit in Tauihi, pouring in 89.1 points per game to top the league and finishing first in both scoring margin (+5.5) and rebounding margin (+6.5). They play fast, share the ball (20.5 assists per night) and happily launch from deep (lead leading 419 attempts from 3) while leading the competition in threes made (10.9 per game at 34%).
On the glass, they’re a problem. Pouākai grab 47.5 rebounds a game, (with 12.15 of those on the offensive glass) no one else is close in raw numbers, while holding opponents to just 41.1 boards per game.
Their size and physicality were on full display in the semi-final, where they again won the rebounding count and generated 16 second-chance points, key plays that kept a buffer between them and a Hoiho side that was reluctant to give up the chase.
| Player | Key numbers | League notes |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Yaeger | 12.4 ppg, 4.0 apg | Primary facilitator but can create when needed. Deadly in transition and as a finisher when focused on scoring |
| Marena Whittle | 20.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, 44% 3P, 3.2 threes made | League scoring champion, 5th in rebounding, top-10 in assists, 7th in 3P% and 1st in threes made and does it all with a bit of spice. Doesn't mind a chin wag. |
| Taylor Mikesell | 14.0 ppg, 40 made threes, 39% 3P, 92% FT | Top-10 scorer, 2nd in threes made, 12th in 3P% and 6th in FT%. Timely with the 3 ball, her range starts when she crosses half court |
| Charlotte Whittaker | 6.7ppg, rpg, 3.2 offensive boards, | Top-3 in offensive boards and a physical presence inside, but one that doesn't offer rim protection. Can get in foul trouble in not careful. Much bigger impact of late with no Fogg or McGoldrick available |
| Bree Hall | 13+ ppg in limited games, 1.5 steals | Adds another perimeter scorer and is 7th in steals per game. Has been lifting her contribution as the season has gone along. Switchy defender that can guard multiple positions |
| McKenna Dale | 12.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.3 bpg | 7th in rebounds, 6th in assists, 4th in blocks; one of the most versatile two-way forwards in the league. |
| Emma Rogers | 3.2 apg, 3.56 A/T | 2nd in Tauihi in assist/turnover ratio |
| TBD: Abi Fogg & Esra McGoldrick | Combined: 20.4ppg, 10.1rpg, 1.1 blks | Both have missed the final part of the season, but if available would have huge impact. |
Pouākai’s semi-final win over Hoiho was a perfect microcosm of their strengths: Whittle stuffed the sheet, Mikesell stretched the floor, Hall found space while the combo of Dale and Whittaker dominated the boards and offered paint protection.
The risk for Alex Stojkovic’s side? Turnovers and fouls. Pouākai commit 14.8 turnovers per game and sit on the wrong side of turnover margin, while their aggressive interior defence can rack up whistles in a hurry.
Against a Whai team that leads the league in free-throw percentage, that’s a tightrope, especially coming up against All Star 5 bigs in Snyder and Hank on the post and aggressive attacks from the wing contingent.
If the Pouākai bring fireworks, the Whai bring a fire hose.
They own the best defence in Tauihi, conceding just 78.2 points per game while holding opponents to 41% from the field and a league-low 29% from three. Their half-court schemes are organised, physical and built to chase shooters off the line – exactly the type of profile you want against Pouākai’s prowess.
Offensively they’re more methodical than explosive, finishing 4th in scoring (81.8 ppg) and 3rd in both field-goal percentage and assists. They don’t waste possessions, either: Whai average just 12.5 turnovers per game, and their guards sit near the top of the assist-to-turnover charts.
Then there’s the free-throw line. Whai shoot a ridiculous 82% as a team, comfortably first in the league, but they had the second fewest attempts which dulls the impact of the efficiency. In a tight final that may come down to the wire, that efficiency might be the single biggest edge on the board.
| Player | Key numbers | League notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hannah Hank | 18.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.9 spg, 84% FT | 3rd in scoring, 2nd in rebounding, 3rd in steals, top-15 in FT%. The two-way anchor of the front-court. |
| Laina Snyder | 15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.0 spg | 6th in scoring, 4th in boards, 12th in assists, 2nd in steals, a Swiss-army knife who now thrives as a super-sub. |
| Emme Shearer | 15.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 41% 3P, 2.2 threes made | 7th in scoring, 9th in 3P%, 6th in threes made – and we just saw what she can do in a semi-final with 26 points. |
| Jess McDowell-White | 12.3 ppg, 6.5 apg, 2.83 A/T, 36.1 mpg | 3rd in assists, 4th in assist-to-turnover ratio, and 1st in minutes played – the engine of everything Whai do. |
| Mikayla Cowling | 11.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.23 threes made | Top-10 in defensive rebounds, top-10 in assists and 3PM, 6th in A/T ratio; also one of the league’s elite perimeter defenders. |
| Jade Kirisome | 4.7ppg, 1.8rpg, 1.2 apg, 33%FG. | Part time starter that gives effort at all times. A threat as a shooter and a facilitator means she will have a chance to impact the game. |
| Tayla Dalton | 3.4ppg, 2.6rpg, 1.3apg 18.6 minutes | Her energy seems boundless, both as a defender on the ball and as an off ball cutter. Could come in as a spot defender for impact off the bench |
| Sophia Locandro | 5.5ppg, 2.3rpg, 100% FT | Likely won't play big minutes, but offers length and shot blocking off the bench and has the ability to stretch the floor. |
When Whai flipped the semi-final against Queens, it was their identity in a nutshell: Cowling’s threes, Snyder's all around impact, Shearer’s fearlessness and Hank’s physicality at both ends, all tied together by McDowell-White’s control of tempo.
1. The three-point line
Pouākai lead the league in threes made (10.9) with Whittle and Mikesell bombing away, while Whai rank 2nd (10.0) but also 1st in opponent 3P%, holding teams to just 29% from deep.
Whichever side wins this battle, Pouākai’s shooting or Whai’s close-outs, will have one hand on the trophy.
2. The glass
Pouākai’s +6.5 rebounding margin versus Whai’s slight negative tells its own story.
If Pouākai dominate second-chance opportunities the way they did in the semi, they can tilt the math in their favour even on an off-shooting night. Conversely, if Hank, Snyder and Cowling can hold their own on the boards, it cuts off one of Pouākai’s biggest pressure points.
3. Whai at the stripe vs Pouākai’s fouls
Whai’s league-best 82% from the line up against a Pouākai team that can be whistle-prone is a potential swing factor in crunch time.
Pouākai’s depth of scoring: When players like Bree Hall and McKenna Dale hit shots early, Pouākai become borderline unguardable, you simply can’t load up on Whittle and Mikesell without giving up something else. What will give?
Foul trouble: Hank and Snyder carry a huge load on both ends. Any early fouls could force Whai into smaller line-ups that struggle on the boards. Conversely, the Pouākai have been down numbers in the frontcourt with the extended absences of Fogg and McGoldrick, if still unavailable that will impact the tenactity of defense for the home side
Tempo: Pouākai are at their best in a flowing, high-possession game; Whai can play that game when needed, but may prefer a more controlled pace where they can squeeze you in the half-court and live at the line, slowing the pace below what the Pouākai would prefer.
On paper this is about as close as it gets: No.1 offense and No.1 rebounding team versus the No.1 defence and No.1 free-throw shooting team. The season series is 2–1 to Whai, but Pouākai have found better form since those early-season meetings.
Will the home team finally break through? Will injured players return? Will either coach be able to use their inside knowledge of the opponent?
The Whai are looking to be the first back to back champ while the Pouākai are hopeful to etch their name on the trophy for the first time. Only one will get their Christmas wish.
Photo Credit: Mike Hill
