It's that time of year, when the commentary crew put their prodigious reputations on the line and put pen to paper (or fingers to keyboards) to share their thoughts on the upcoming season. This years competition looks tight so we asked a few of the members of the mic squad to share their thoughts on the upcoming season. Sky Sport's G.J. Gardner Tauihi commentators Casey Frank, Justin Nelson, Maia Williamson and Casyn Buchman are joined by scribe Mike Lacey to put their names on the line as they peer into their own personal crystal balls to give you their season predicitions.
Q: Who will win the League Rising Star? (Kiwi's Only)
Justin Nelson: Looks like there are just under 20 players to choose from and very hard to pick just one. Criteria has an age limit (21 and under), so look for good friends Pahlyss Hokianga (Whai) and Bailey Flavell (Kāhu) to be in the running here. I also like Sophie Rogers (Whai), and think Anika Hyland (Whai), Alana Paewai (Queens), Kodee Williams-Sefo (Kahu), Elise Gilbert (Hoiho), Amy Pateman (Kāhu) and Alexa Duff (Hoiho) will have their moments to shine. I’m going with Flavell, I think she’s going to have a break-out season.
Maia Williamson: Pahlyss Hokianga - she is a BUCKET.
Mike Lacey: This is shaping as a big season for Esra McGoldrick. The Mainland Pouākai wing upped her production from 7.9ppg and 5.3rpg in 2022 to 15.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game in the 2023 campaign. Now an automatic pick for the Tall Ferns, McGoldrick has the potential to elevate her game even further in 2024. (note: Mike was not made aware of the rule to be 21 and under)
Casyn Buchman: Bailey Flavell Kāhu
Casey Frank: The generation of talent coming up is superb and their are a ton of players to choose from. Pahlyss Hokianga will look to build on a huge year while Flavell and Kode Williams-Sefo could play roles for the Kāhu and look like early favourites for me, but it could just come down to playing time giving the edge to players who may get a few more minutes. Rolling the dice here but I'll lean towards the Pouākai and the length of Vitolia Tuilave having an impact on the defensive end to grab some attention in this category.
Q: Most Outstanding Guard?
Justin Nelson: This will be a great contest between Florencia Chagas (Queens), Ashley Joens (Whai), Paige Bradley (Hoiho), Tahlia Tupaea (Kāhu), McKenna Dale (Whai), and maybe the experienced Mikhaela Cann (Pouākai). Incredibly hard to split - I'll go with Joens.
Maia Williamson: Jordon Horston Queens or Mikhaela Cann
Mike Lacey: For me this this is a two-way contest between Paige Bradley and Florencia Chagas. Hoiho point guard Bradley was outstanding last season and was deservedly named to the All-Star Five but let’s not forget Argentinian Chagas was the Grand Final MVP in 2022 when she torched the Kāhu for 22 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists as the Queens claimed the inaugural title. It’s a close call but I’m going with Bradley. Her pass-first mentality saw her average a league high 7.8 assists per game, to accompany 14.6 points, in 2023. More of the same please Paige!
Casyn Buchman: Ashley Joens Tauranga Whai
Casey Frank: Paige Bradley was outstanding last year while Tahlia Tupaea was MVP level before getting injured but of the returners I think Florencia Chagas has the inside track. Of the fresh faces I'd lean towards Ashley Joens and think I'll need to put Jihyun Park in here as I see her skill set as very guardlike (but I would expect her to play a lot of small forward) but taking it all in I'll go with Chagas, she was electric the first trip and I can't wait to see her on the court again.
Q: Most Outstanding Big (F/C)?
Justin Nelson: Jordan Horston (Queens) to win here, ahead of a group of probably 6 or 7 players.
Maia Williamson: Penina Davidson
Mike Lacey: Tokomanawa Queens centre Tamari Key set a programme record at the University of Tennessee with 347 career blocked shots including 11 in one game. That sort of rim protection capability will be sure to have the 198cm big in the conversation for the 2024 Outstanding Forward award. I’m expecting others on the short list at the end of the season to include fellow Queen Jordan Horston, Ilmar’I Thomas (Kāhu), Laina Snyder (Tauranga Whai), Haliegh Reinhoehl (Pouākai) and Samantha Bowman (Hoiho).
Casyn Buchman: IImar’I Thomas (Kāhu)
Casey Frank: IImar'I Thomas was unstoppable on the low block last year with impeccable footwork and there is a bevy of talented players with length to choose from, and if we're going with Forwards Mikayla Cowling (Whai) was maybe my favourite at the position last season. Tamari Key (Queens) will have a huge defensive impact, but with all that said I'll go with Jordan Horston as the Small Forward whose all around impact will be palpable, the only issue is the overall talent of the Queens could diminish each players impact as individuals.
Q: Most Outstanding Kiwi Guard?
Justin Nelson: I really like McKenna Dale (Whai), she just brings so much ferocity to the game, a true competitor. Stella Beck (Queens), Tahlia Tupaea (Kāhu) and Krystal Leger-Walker (Kāhu) will all be in the mix as well.
Maia Williamson: Stella Beck or KLW
Mike Lacey: 2022 MVP Tahlia Tupaea, is back. The Kāhu guard averaged 18.2 points (4th overall), 4.3 assists (3rd overall) and 2.8 steals (1st overall) in the inaugural Tauihi Aotearoa. However she was limited to just 3 games in 2023 due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. Healthy again I’m expecting Tupaea to have a big impact in the 2025 season.
Casyn Buchman: Lauryn Hippolite (Tokomanawa Queens)
Casey Frank: McKenna Dale is a pure shooter, I'm looking forward to the efforts KLW on both ends of the floor while Stella Beck shifted the play of the Queens when she was in and out of the lineup last season. But I'm going with the former MVP Tahlia Tupaea she's gonna be tough to stop again.
Q: Most Outstanding Kiwi Big (F/C)?
Justin Nelson: A battle between Esra McGoldrick (Pouākai) and Penina Davidson (Kāhu), with Zoe Richards (Hoiho) also in the conversation. Something tells me McGoldrick is about to deliver a breakout season, so she is my tip.
Maia Williamson: Penina Davidson
Mike Lacey: This is a straightforward one for me. Penina Davidson returns for her second season with the Kāhu and if she is anywhere near as productive as last season - 15.3 points and 11.6 rebounds per game – the Tall Ferns centre gets the nod. Honorable Mentions to Sharne Pupuke (Pouākai) and Zoe Richards (Hoiho) in the
Casyn Buchman: Penina Davidson
Casey Frank: Leaning Zoe Richards here, her leap last season was immense and with the responsibility she'll have in making the Hoiho will give her ample opportunity on both ends of the court.
Q: Who will be the Defensive player of the year?
Justin Nelson: This will be a super hot contest this season - I'm going with Jordan Horston (Queens).
Maia Williamson: Esra McGoldrick will lead a block party!
Mike Lacey: Mikayla Cowling won this award in 2023 and I see no reason why the former University of California standout can’t go back-to-back. With the ability to defend all positions from 1 through to 4 Cowling returns to Tauranga Whai for a second season. She posted a highly impressive 23.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2 steals per game in last year’s campaign illustrating her capabilities at both ends of the court.
Casyn Buchman: Zoe Richards (Hoiho)
Casey Frank: Tamari Key (Queens), her defensive impact will be immense, I expect guards to be having nightmares about her shot swatting abilities.
Q: Which team will win the Rapid League?
Justin Nelson: This is tough. You tend to look for depth in a roster, but Rapid League can throw up so many variables. I really like the way the Whai approached Rapid last season, and they will be strong again. However, with the inclusion of two FIBA Asia players in Rapid to spice things up, I think the Kāhu and Queens will be best placed, especially with a very experienced mix of Kiwis on deep rosters. I’m picking the Kāhu.
Maia Williamson: The Whai have famously been very strong in their young/development core, and play a nice modern style of basketball that suits the fast-pace of Rapid League
Mike Lacey: It’s possible that the Norther Kāhu could field a Rapid League team featuring five Tall Ferns. Two FIBA Asia players (mainly Australians) per team evens up the field but with their depth of talent I’ll stick with my original thought and back the Kāhu.
Casyn Buchman: Tauranga Whai
Casey Frank: The Kāhu took the Rapid with the utmost of seriousness last season and have 3 Fiba Asia players to rotate through the Rapid format as well as a heap of Kiwi talent. Yeah, I'll go with them.
Q: Who’s your tip to win the championship?
Justin Nelson: You need a lot to go right to win a championship, especially in a quickfire 12-week season like Tauihi. It starts with recruiting the right mix of players, and I think the Queens, Kāhu and Whai have recruited the best, so it feels like two of the three will make it to the grand final but of course only one can win. Right now, on paper, the Queens look the most complete team to me, the internationals are extremely strong, and the local contingent is packed with proven guards. Queens to start favourites. Every chance we get a Queens and Kāhu grand final again, but do not discount the Whai - if they can stay healthy, they have a very good core 6 players.
Maia Williamson: Queens - deep lineup with a lot of experience, and a major signing in Jordan Horston
Mike Lacey: Tokomanawa Queens, with the benefit of a pre-season tour to China to participate in the APAC Women’s Basketball Challenge, will hit the ground running and likely be the front runners through the regular season. Northern Kāhu will close the gap in the second half of the season and I can see the duo duelling for the 2025 title with the Queens winning the Grand Final in overtime!
Casyn Buchman: BNZ Northern Kāhu
Casey Frank: ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens. It feels to me like the Queens and Kāhu are a pinch better than the field and that's to be expected from the teams who have split the first two titles.
Q: Which teams will reach the Final 4?
Justin Nelson: ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens, BNZ Northern Kāhu, Tauranga Whai Sourthern Hoiho
Maia Williamson: Pouākai , Kāhu, Queens and Whai
Mike Lacey: On paper all five teams appear decidedly stronger than their 2023 editions. Whilst that’s no guarantee of success I’m picking the top three finishers from last season – Kāhu, Queens and Whai – along with Mainland Pouākai.
Casyn Buchman: Kāhu, Whai, Queens, Hoiho
Casey Frank: Kāhu, Whai, Queens, and Hoiho. 5 strong candidates and I think it's going to be a close call with the Whai, Hoiho and Pouākai fighting for the 3rd and 4th positions. But in the end I think it will be the Pouākai who just miss out.
Q: Meaning which team will take the wooden spoon?
Justin Nelson: Hard one to answer as it is literally the only team that misses the finals. Looking at the squads - the Kāhu, Whai and Queens look to have recruited the best, so I think the battle for fourth (and fifth) will be out of the Pouākai and Hoiho. I like Hoiho’s continuation with Zoe Richards, Paige Bradley and Ahlise Hurst all returning, and Samantha Bowman looks a strong addition, so I’ll give them the final playoffs spot just ahead of the Pouākai.
Maia Williamson: At this stage, Hoiho looks like the team with the least amount of depth. However, I think it'll be a close race all the way through, so this is a tough one to answer
Mike Lacey: Unfortunately Southern Hoiho appear to have less depth than the other four teams so I see the unwanted ‘trophy’ landing in Dunedin. However I’d be happy to be proved wrong.
Casyn Buchman: Mainland Pouākai
Casey Frank: Sorry Pouākai!
Q: And finally who will win the League MVP?
Justin Nelson: I’m going to say Jordan Horston from the Queens, she will be arriving in NZ coming off a big WNBA season with Seattle, is in form and athletically in peak fitness. Should be the best two-way player in the competition. I expect Ashley Joens (Whai) and Mikayala Cowling (Whai) to be in the mix, and Jihyun Park (Queens) might be the surprise nobody saw coming.
Maia Williamson: Jordon Horston Queens
Mike Lacey: Every team has a potential MVP given the quality oozing from the five rosters. That said it’s hard to go past Seattle Storm forward Jordan Horston. Currently averaging 7.1 points and 4.4 rebounds in the WNBA those numbers suggest the 23 year-old has got serious game.
Casyn Buchman: I'lmari Thomas Kāhu
Casey Frank: Talent galore and a ton of great thoughts that have been shared above, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Jihyun Park (Queens). I think her play will end up being the fulcrum for the Queens. My lone caveat being that with all the talent that Tokomanawa is featuring the depth of players might just end up cancelling each other out.
