The race for the G.J. Gardner Homes Tauihi Basketball Aotearoa Final Four is heating up, with three weeks remaining in the regular season and plenty to be decided.
Southern Hoiho and ProcureX Mainland Pouākai have secured their places in December's Final Four, but the battle for the top two seeds, and the remaining two postseason positions, is far from settled.
Hoiho lead the competition with seven wins from nine games, one victory ahead of Pouākai, while BNZ Northern Kāhu have clawed their way up the ladder to sit third at three wins with five games still to play.
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai occupy fourth position while also sitting on three victories, and the ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens sit at the bottom of the standings with just one win, but remain mathematically alive after picking up the first win of the season last round.
With the top four advancing to the Semi-Finals, every result matters. And with points percentage the sole tiebreaker, there could be plenty of movement before the regular season concludes on Sunday 29 November.
Adding another layer of intrigue is Rapid League, with points scored and conceded in those contests contributing to each team's overall points percentage. That means every basket could prove important when the final standings are determined.
| osition | Team | GP | W | L | %Won | For | Agst | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Southern Hoiho | 9 | 7 | 2 | 77 | 941 | 1011 | 93 |
| 2 |  |
Mainland Pouākai | 9 | 6 | 3 | 66 | 1054 | 1002 | 105 |
| 3 |  |
Northern Kāhu | 7 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 814 | 746 | 109 |
| 4 |  |
Tauranga Whai | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 820 | 862 | 95 |
| 5 |  |
Tokomanawa Queens | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 783 | 791 | 98 |
While wins and losses determine the ladder, points percentage could prove decisive if teams finish with identical records.
Kāhu currently boast the competition's best points percentage at 109% thanks largely to their stellar undefeated Rapid League squad, followed by Pouākai at 105%. Despite sitting fifth, the Queens hold a better percentage than both Whai and league-leading Hoiho.
With three rounds of encounters still to come across Rapid and Tauihi, those numbers could shift significantly over the coming weeks.
Currently 1st | 7 wins, 2 losses | 93% points percentage
Southern Hoiho have been the competition's benchmark through nine games and have already secured their place in the Final Four.
With three regular-season games remaining, Hoiho are in the strongest position to claim the number one seed, which would give them the right to host a Semi-Final and potentially the Grand Final.
However, a poor Rapid League record ( 1-8, Points Percentage 67%) has impacted their overall points percentage, bringing it down to 93%, the lowest in the competition. This means they could be vulnerable in a tiebreaker should another contender draw level on wins.
Remaining games:
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 13 Nov | The Northern Group Tauranga Whai | Home |
| Sun 22 Nov | ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens | Away |
| Fri 27 Nov | BNZ Northern Kāhu | Home |
Hoiho's remaining schedule features two games at home against Whai and Kāhu, separated by a trip to Porirua to take on the Queens. The good news is they don't have to play the Pouākai again, avoiding the team responsible for their two losses this season.
Importantly, Hoiho can secure the top seed by winning their remaining three games, regardless of results elsewhere.
For the Southern side, the goal is clear: keep winning to ensure the road to the championship runs through the Edgar Centre.
Currently 2nd | 6 wins, 3 losses | 105% points percentage
ProcureX Mainland Pouākai have also guaranteed themselves a postseason appearance and remain firmly in contention for the top seed.
With six victories and three games remaining, Pouākai can finish with as many as nine wins, potentially moving ahead of Hoiho if results fall their way.
Their points percentage of 105% could be particularly valuable, giving them an advantage over Hoiho should the two finish level on wins and their current percentage ordering remain unchanged.
Remaining games:
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov | BNZ Northern Kāhu | Home |
| Sat 21 Nov | The Northern Group Tauranga Whai | Away |
| Sat 28 Nov | ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens | Home |
Pouākai face Kāhu at home this Saturday before travelling to Tauranga to meet Whai. They close out the regular season against the Queens in Christchurch.
The upcoming clash against Kāhu is especially important, with the Auckland side looking to make up ground in the race for a home Semi-Final as the only team in the league who has a superior points percentage than the Pouākai.
Pouākai have put themselves in a strong position with a chance at the top rung on the ladder, but with Kāhu having 5 games yet to play, securing a top-two finish is not yet guaranteed.
Currently 3rd | 3 wins, 4 losses | 109% points percentage
BNZ Northern Kāhu are arguably the most intriguing team in the finals race.
Despite sitting third with three victories, they have played fewer games than any team above them and hold the competition's best points percentage at 109% thanks mostly to their dominant Rapid League side.
With five games still on their schedule, Kāhu control their own destiny in the chase for a home-semi and can finish with as many as eight wins while currently having the strongest points percentage, giving them a realistic opportunity to challenge for a top-two position and a the home Semi-Final that comes with it.
Remaining games:
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 12 Nov | ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens | Home |
| Sat 14 Nov | ProcureX Mainland Pouākai | Away |
| Fri 20 Nov | ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens | Home |
| Fri 27 Nov | Southern Hoiho | Away |
| Sun 29 Nov | The Northern Group Tauranga Whai | Away |
Thursday 12 November is the rescheduled fixture, with no Rapid League game preceding.
Their run begins on Thursday 12 November with the rescheduled game against the Queens at Eventfinda Stadium, before travelling to Christchurch to face Pouākai just two days later.
A second meeting with the Queens follows in Round 9, before Kāhu close their season with away games against Hoiho and Whai.
Those final two contests could have a significant impact on the ladder, particularly if Kāhu remain within reach of a home Semi-Final.
With their superior points percentage and games in hand, Kāhu have plenty of opportunities to improve their position. However, a demanding remaining schedule means they still have work to do to secure their postseason place.
4th | 3 wins, 5 losses | 95% points percentage
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai find themselves in a genuine battle to extend their season.
The defending champions currently occupy fourth position, level on wins with Kāhu but having played one additional game.
Remaining games:
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 13 Nov | Southern Hoiho | Away |
| Sun 15 Nov | ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens | Away |
| Sat 21 Nov | ProcureX Mainland Pouākai | Home |
| Sun 29 Nov | BNZ Northern Kāhu | Home |
Their remaining schedule is challenging, beginning with double header weekend that starts with a trip to Dunedin to face the league-leading Hoiho on Friday night.
Whai then travel to Porirua for a crucial matchup against the Queens before finishing the regular season with home games against Pouākai and Kāhu with plenty of rest in between.
The contest against the Queens on Sunday 15 November could be particularly significant. A Whai victory would put further distance between the two teams, while a Queens win would tighten the battle for the final postseason positions.
Whai can still finish with as many as seven victories, and with games against the Queens, Pouākai and Kāhu, they have opportunities to directly influence the teams around them.
However, their points percentage of 95% is a concern if they finish level with Kāhu or the Queens.
For the defending champions, the pathway is straightforward: find a way to stack wins over the final three rounds and lift the points percentage as much as possible in the process.
5th | 1 win, 6 losses | 98% points percentage
The ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens face the most difficult road to the Final Four, but their postseason ambitions remain mathematically possible.
With one win from their first seven games, the Queens can finish with a maximum of six victories, meaning they will need a strong finish and some help from results elsewhere.
Remaining games:
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 12 Nov | BNZ Northern Kāhu | Away |
| Sun 15 Nov | The Northern Group Tauranga Whai | Home |
| Fri 20 Nov | BNZ Northern Kāhu | Away |
| Sun 22 Nov | Southern Hoiho | Home |
| Sat 28 Nov | ProcureX Mainland Pouākai | Away |
Thursday 12 November is the rescheduled fixture, with no Rapid League game preceding.
The Queens' points percentage of 98% works both ways for the teams they are chasing, currently sitting ahead of the Whai but well behind Kāhu
Should they manage to close the gap in the win column, that percentage could become important.
The next three games of their remaining schedule are especially significant, with the Queens facing Kāhu on Thursday, hosting Whai on Sunday before a return trip to face the Kāhu the following Friday.
Victories in those encounters would not only strengthen their own position but also take valuable wins away from their two direct rivals for the fourth finals position.
The Queens have little room for error, but with five games remaining, they still have an opportunity to turn their season around if they can keep the wins coming in.
Several key matchups stand out across the remaining schedule.
Thursday 12 & Friday 20 November BNZ Northern Kāhu v ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens
The rescheduled contest at Eventfinda Stadium gives Kāhu an opportunity to strengthen their position, while the Queens desperately need a victory to keep pace with the top four. Then a week later they meet in the same building to run it back. If either team takes both games their finals chances rise exponentially, but the inverse is also true. Two losses may just close the door on postseason chances.
Saturday 14 November: ProcureX Mainland Pouākai v BNZ Northern Kāhu
A potentially pivotal clash in Christchurch. Pouākai are looking to cement a top-two finish, while Kāhu have an opportunity to close the gap on the competition's leading teams.
Sunday 15 November: ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens v The Northern Group Tauranga Whai
One of the most important games in the battle for fourth. Whai can put further distance between themselves and the Queens, while a Tokomanawa victory would bring the teams closer together.
Saturday 21 November: The Northern Group Tauranga Whai v ProcureX Mainland Pouākai
A major test for both sides. Whai need victories to strengthen their finals prospects, while Pouākai could be fighting to secure a home Semi-Final.
Friday 27 November: Southern Hoiho v BNZ Northern Kāhu
A matchup that could have major implications for the top of the ladder. Hoiho will be looking to secure the highest possible seed, while Kāhu may still be chasing a home Semi-Final.
Sunday 29 November: The Northern Group Tauranga Whai v BNZ Northern Kāhu
The final game of the regular season could also prove to be one of the most important. Depending on the results leading into the contest, both teams could have their finals positioning, or even qualification, on the line.
While victories remain the priority, points percentage could ultimately determine where teams finish.
Unlike competitions that use head-to-head results or points differential to separate teams on identical records, Tauihi uses points percentage as its sole tiebreaker.
The calculation is based on total points scored divided by total points conceded, including scoring from Rapid League games.
That creates an additional challenge for teams down the stretch.
A convincing victory can improve a team's percentage considerably, while a heavy defeat can undo much of that advantage. Even the closing moments of a game could prove important when teams are separated by narrow margins.
With Kāhu, Pouākai and the Queens currently holding percentages above 98%, and Hoiho and Whai sitting below that mark, there is potential for significant ladder movement if teams finish level on wins.
Rapid League also takes on additional importance, with results in those contests potentially influencing the final Tauihi standings even though Rapid League wins do not count towards the Tauihi win-loss record.
With Hoiho and Pouākai safely through, their attention turns to the battle for home court advantage that comes with a top two seed and the question marks rremaining above the remaining two postseason places.
Kāhu have games to play in hand and the strongest points percentage, Whai are fighting to defend their place in the four, and the Queens need a strong finish to keep their season alive.
The top two teams will host Semi-Finals on 5 and 6 December, with the highest remaining seed hosting the Grand Final on Sunday 13 December.
With direct matchups between finals contenders throughout the remaining schedule, the race to the Final Four promises plenty of drama, so make sure you WATCH HER GAME.
