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Casey’s Corner: The Big Preview

The Big (and I mean big) Preview

The time is now. Two teams have taken a full season to get here and will now have 40 minutes to see if all that work will lead to the realisation of a dream, or if they will fall agonisingly short. Read on for an in depth preview of both teams and read alllll the way to the end to get Casey Frank's prediction for the result.

Team Stats: 

  Scoring Offense

Scoring Defense

Free Throw Percentage 

Field Goal Percentage Field Goal Percentage Defense Offensive Rebound Percentage Defensive Rebound Percentage

Queens

78.08 ppg (3rd) 81.69 ppg (4th) 75% (4th) 42% (3rd) 40% (3rd) 32% (1st) 73% (1st)

Whai

82.54 ppg (1st) 76.85 ppg (2nd) 73% (last) 39% (4th) 40% (4th) 28% (3rd) 72% (2nd)

The Teams: 

The Northern Group Tauranga Whai - (7 wins 6 losses including Final 4 weekend)

The Whai came into the season with high hopes despite not having returning All-Star 5 member Mikayla Cowling to start the year due to injury and an opening game win where they dropped 98 points (Tauihi equal '24 season high) as to go 1-0 would have lifted their confidence. But with Morgan Yaeger going down early in that win with a broken wrist the sledding would get difficult and they would drop their next 5 games straight, culminating in their worst ever loss when they fell to the Kāhu 81-48 to slump to bottom of the table. But Coach Alex Stojkovic kept the team focused, and possibly more importantly welcomed back the injured MC (Cowling) and Yaeger and tweaked the lineup with the insertion of McKenna Dale. The offense found greater heights, never dipping below 83 points again in the regular season to rip off a 5-1 record to work their way into the 3rd seed for the post-season. The Whai morphing from a high powered offense that couldn't find stops into a powerful two-way team that can turn the screws defensively and now had enough weapons (and the correct balance) to find scoring prowess in the half-court, not just in transition. This is a team that is balanced on both ends of the court boasting solid depth and genuine scoring ability.

Starters-

PG - Morgan Yaegar - (6 games played, 4 starts) 11.5 ppg, 3.8rpg, 3.8astpg (42% fg, 21% 3pfg, 74% ft) 

Suffering an injury just minutes into the season derailed the Whai as they lost their most experienced PG and the player that was supposed to tie everything together. The squad has found its greatest heights since her insertion into the lineup as the team finally found positional stability with a true pg enabling the rest of the squad to concentrate on jobs other than running the squad. She combines good size with a solid handle and a premiere ability to change speeds and while she isn't the best offesnive weapon they boast, she may be the most important.

SG - Ashley Joens (13 games played, 13 starts) 23.92ppg, 8.5rbp, 1.8astpg (39% fg, 24% 3pfg, 80% ft)

Joens is a professional scorer. A flat out scorer who can do it in transition or in the half-court. She can shoot, drive with either hand, create opportunities off and ball with cuts and movement and has the ability to know when to pull back and when to put the pedal to the metal. But she's also shown ability to contribute without scoring, contributing heavily on the glass and being a key cog in the defensive scheme. But scoring is her forte, and coming into the Grand Final no player has scored more or had to carry as heavy a load for her team to be successful. While that load as lightened as the squad has reached full health, the lessons learned in how to do the heavy lifting will stay with her and, when needed, can be called upon again. 

SF - Mikayla Cowling - (8 games played, 8 starts)  8.6ppg, 3.3rpg, 3.8astpg ((31% fg, 26% 3pfg, 89% ft)

When word of an offseason injury to the MC filtered through the grapevine there was concern. How would a team that was so dependent on a player the season before go without? The answer was... not great. But her return wasn't the salve it was hoped to be, as the rust was evident resulting in around a third of her expected production, and to top it off she was out of position while being asked to play the pg. But Cowling was the ultimate teammate, deferring to what had been established while analysing how she could best contribute. Her production has improved, and while the stats haven't been replicated from a season ago the impact has been similar. She is the Whai's most important defender, with the quickness to stick on perimeter threats and the toughness to mix it up on the interior. But don't let the stats fool you, her offensive game is a sleeping giant, and pity anyone who decides to interrupt that slumber. 

PF - McKenna Dale - (13 games played, 7 starts), 15.2ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.7astpg (50%fg, 41% 3pfg, 84%ft)

While always playing major minutes Dale started the season coming off the pine, and while her influence was of note the team was failing to gel and struggled to score up to the level that you'd expect with the talent they featured. Her insertion into the starting lineup coincided with the return to health of Cowling and Yaeger and when combined alchemy was achieved. not only was there a lift in the O, but defensively a once porous unit found a stiffness which allowed just 1 team to score more than 72 points since. Always a dead eye shooter off the catch, her 2nd Tauihi season featured more ball movement and her speed created fast back opportunities on the kick ahead. Her defensive efforts as important as the offense, much like Cowling she has the ability to stay in front on the perimeter or mix it up on the block, her switchy-ness is key to the Whai's favored defensive schemes. 

C  -  Lara McSpadden - (13 games played, 13 starts) 10.5ppg, 10.1rpg, 3.3astpg (47% fg, 18% 3pfg, 56% ft)

McSpadden is key to everything the Whai do. Defensively she is the last line of defense using length to patrol the paint before hoovering up the D-boards to ignite the transition game. Offensively she's played well off her teammates, both as a post threat and as a roller, but has the ability to take it in the isolation game if given the chance. An unsung hero of the starting lineup her sacrifice offensively has enable the team to find a higher level of efficiency, but in case of emergency that glass can be broken to add another tool to the kit. 

Bench

Laina Snyder - (13 games played, 10 starts) 9.8ppg, 6.7rpg, 2.3astpg (34% fg, 28% 3pfg, 68% ft) 

Have I mentioned sacrifice yet? You could argue no player in the league has sacrificed more than Snyder,  as a player expected to be a double-double machine has been asked to re-invent herself as a defense first super-sub. still early in the 6th-woman role the returns have been solid, as her all-around skillset enables the Whai to use her as a fill in for 4 of the 5 starters. Her offense may have dropped a bit, but the defense has lifted, and her work rate has interrupted the flow of opposition offenses all season long.

Jade Kirisome - (13 games played, 6 starts) 4.6ppg, 2.1rpg, 1.8astpg

An early season starter, her move to the bench coincided with a rise in Whai form, but the twitchy defender will look to play double digit minutes in the final and her production in that time will be key to team success. 

Kaylee Smiler -  (13 games played, 0 starts) 2.8ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.4astpg

Her stats don't say much but her game does. Displaying great quickness on both ends of the court she's found more court time and influence as the season has gone along and will look to be an impact player off the bench for 10 minutes or more in the final. 

Deep Bench

Eva Langton, Pahlyss Hokianga, Emma Rogers, Sophie Rogers

Langton is the most likely to have her number called and her positional versatility may be needed. Hokianga stepped up admirably in the early season and that opportunity will be priceless if she is called upon in the final. Both Emma and Sophie Rogers have shooting skill and if needed will be able to fire off some triples. 

 

ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens

Packed with internationally renowned talent the Queens were the far and away early season favourites and a solid if unspectacular 5-2 start had the squad sitting near the top of table and positioned to use a second half run to grab the top spot in the league. But a second half swoon would ensue, and 4 straight losses would have the Queens clinging to the 4th and final playoff spot. But a chance in the postseason is all any team needs and squad in particular was confident of their ability to pull it together when they most need to. But with 9 minutes left in their semi-final game the Queens were staring at a 16 point deficit and on the road against the only team in the league they had failed to beat in the regular season. And just when we were ready to close the door on the season, magic ensues. The defense would lift and the offense would find movement as suddenly the Queens looked like they would reign once again. It will take more than 9 minutes of great basketball to win a title, but this is a team that has rediscovered their swag and now head to their 3rd straight title game with a chance to become the first multi-season champion in Tauihi's brief but storied history. 

PG - Jihyun Park -  (13 games played, 8 starts) 15.2ppg, 5.5rpg, 3astpg (49% fg, 34% 3pfg, 82%ft)

Park has been a picture of consistency for the the Queens, dropping below 10 points scored just 3 times. Early in the season her efficiency was key to team success but the ball has flowed a bit more freely from her hand as the season has gone along. Her versatility means she can wear many hats, moving from a facilitating point guard to a second side scorer with ease. She has excellent size and strength that enables a lift in her defensive presence and, like many of her teammates, is extremely switchable on that end. The ball often finds her at big moments and the coaching staff has confidence in her ability to make the right decision, be it shoot or pass, at the right time.

SG - Stella Beck - (12 games played, 11 starts) 9.4 ppg, 6.8rpg, 3.4astpg (47% fg, 29% 3pfg, 57% ft)

The captain, the backbone, the heart and soul or the glue. Whatever the moniker she's it to the Queens. One season on from an illness knocking her out of the chance to play for a title her meaning to the team hasn't waned one iota. Her stats are solid if unspectacular but they don't tell half the story of her influence on the team and its results. Featuring great court awareness she often finds herself in the thick of things, especially on the defensive end where she always seems to get a deflection when it's most needed. While her leadership may be what she offers that is most vital to the teams success she also has the skill to make big buckets when needed so shade off of her on that end at your own expense.

SF - Jordan Horston - (10 games played, 10 starts), 22.4ppg, 8.3 rpg, 5.8 astpg (39% fg, 32% 3pfg, 82% ft)\

She came into the season with a big reputation but even still the production has exceeded the Queens wildest hopes. The most superior athlete in the league can lose defenders in a flash and is a scoring threat from everywhere on the court as evidenced by her regular season scoring title (24ppg). But it is her all-around game that impresses most. As good of an on ball defender as there is in the league she can also feast in passing lanes when on the weak side. Her rebounding effort rarely wobbles and she can punish lazy defenses with attacks on the o-boards at the same time she can dominate on the defensive glass. Even more impressive is her ability to adjust, such as in the Semi-Final where her shooting was struggling (2-14 fg's) and she was held under double digits for the first time this season. No worries, she'll initiate playmaker mode and start the dishing to drop an equal season high 9 assists to help fuel a storied comeback. She has the type of skill that must be game-planned against, but it's the will to take your plans and toss em in the bin that may be more dangerous.

PF - Lou Brown - (13 games played, 12 starts) 14.1 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 3.1astpg (47% fg, 30% 3pfg, 84% ft)

Brown has been the backbone of the Queens interior defense all season long with her ability to corral boards paramount to the teams ability to start transition after a solid defensive possession. She can score with the best of them (with a season high 28) but has had her number called less often as the season has travelled along. Brown has consistently been charged with the guarding of the opponents key interior threat and has brought stifling defense to those assignments. 

C  - Tamari Key - (11 games played, 8 starts) 6.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, .6astpg (57% fg, zero 3's attempted, 62% ft)

Key has slowly found more influence as the season has gone along and can be a game changer with her ability to contest shots on the interior. The tallest player in the league doesn't have a huge minutes load, but that has been creeping up as the season has come along. She depends on her teammates to grab the board off the glass as her rebounding has been less effective than expected but has the skillset to be more influential there. Her matchup against McSpadden will be integral and it wouldn't be surprising to see her minutes lift if she can find an edge there. 

Bench

Florencia Chagas - (12 games played, 9 starts) 14ppg, 3.6rpg, 3astpg) 

The former finals MVP has been solid offensively and has the ability and confidence to influence a game at all times. A natural pg her ability with the ball in hand is unquestioned, but she has given up some of that responsibility with a number of players on the roster whose skillset also requires being the ball carrier at the initial point of attack. She hit huge 3's in the semi-final that kept the team in striking distance and had her second highest point total of the year (20pts) when the team needed it most. Her efficiency isn't quite where you would expect it to be, but the former champion has a knack for delivering at the right time and there is no right-er time than the Grand Final. For a team that essentially plays 6 players she may be the only lever coach Tupu can pull to change the flow of the game.

Deep Bench

Jacinta Beckley, Awatea Leach, Grace Hunter

While unlikely to play major minutes the trio will have to stay ready to sub in for a starting group that has found a bit of foul trouble this year. Beckley will be the first port of call if there is any foul trouble in the front court and has the strength and smarts to contribute defensively. Leach gives the Queens the option for a burst of energy and has a high motor on the defensive end, and while Hunter has been called upon less often this year she can still be influential on both sides of the ball. (update: Awatea Leach has been ruled out due to injury)

Predicition

What a Grand Final matchup!! Two teams who have faced adversity and found ways to pick themselves up and get back in the mix. With that type of resiliency no lead will be safe so look for teams to try to push the advantage if they do get an upper hand early. Statistically speaking there isn't a ton of difference between these teams, until you get to the three ball. If the Whai find freedom to go bombs away from deep they will have an advantage as no team shoots the ball as prolifically as do the Whai, but the Queens have the personnel to close the space on the perimeter.

But that isn't the only threat the Whai present as a team that has grown their understanding of each other and what the coaching staff wants from them on the offensive end. Keeping Joens under wraps while also being aware of off-ball movement is a difficult task, but one that must be executed to near perfection to slow down the Whai offense.

Early in the year the key to stopping the Whai was to keep the ball out of Joens' hand, but that strategy now just opens up space for a number of other threats, including the drives of Yaeger or the cuts of Dale. 

The Queens will look to go through Horston early, and they won't stop going to that well until forced to, but  of the entire league I can't think of a player more up to the challenge of defending her 1on1 better suited than Mikayla Cowling. If that well does end up going a bit dry, look for the mid-range game of Park to feature. Lou Brown could have an advantage down low if McSpadden is tied with Key, and if that is the case I would look for Snyder to get an early tap on the shoulder off the bench. 

Both squads will need to be wary of the whistle, as they can get caught up in the physicality of the moment, but I don't envision that being a problem for either team.

A lot to process, and I'm leaving a few points on the keyboard (you're welcome). Taking all that into account I'm going with the Whai to take out their first title on their homecourt.

My Prediction: Whai (82) defeat Queens (76)

 

 

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