Tauihi Playoff Scenarios

Tauihi Playoff Scenarios: Who Hosts, Who Travels, and Why Every Point Matters

Four of the five clubs are still chasing a top-two seed and the home semi that comes with it. In G.J. Gardner Homes Tauihi, ties on wins are broken by overall points percentage across Tauihi plus Sky Broadband Rapid League combined:
Points % = (Total Points For in Tauihi + Rapid) ÷ (Total Points Against in Tauihi + Rapid).
If teams remain tied, the next step is points % in games between the tied teams. If it is still tied for two clubs, a playoff game or coin toss can apply. For three-team ties, the same head-to-head points % rule decides placings among those teams.

Round 10 Schedule

Game 28, Friday 28 Nov
Probuild ITM Mainland Pouākai vs BNZ Northern Kāhu, Cowles Stadium, Christchurch
Rapid 6:30pm, Tauihi 7:30pm

Game 29, Saturday 29 Nov
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai vs Southern Hoiho, QEYC, Tauranga
Rapid 2:00pm, Tauihi 3:00pm

Game 30, Sunday 30 Nov
BNZ Northern Kāhu vs ANZCO Tokomanawa Queens, Eventfinda Stadium, Auckland
Rapid 2:00pm, Tauihi 3:00pm

Where Things Stand

• Queens (111%)  +132 points overall 

  • Lead both ladders . They are strong favorites for a home semi based on their superior points percentage (+8 of closest team)

• Hoiho (100%) +2 points overall 

  • Sit 7-4 in Tauihi and are right with Queens on wins and on

• Pouākai (103%) +49 points overall

  • 6-5 in Tauihi and 6–5 in Rapid and can still climb with help.

• Whai (99%)  -8 points overall 

  • 6-5 in Tauihi and are alive for a top-two seed.

• Kāhu

  • Out of the finals chase in Tauihi, but their results this week are key and impact other teams ladder location through points %.

Game-by-Game Stakes

Friday: Pouākai vs Kāhu

• If Pouākai win, they move to 7–5 and stay in the home-semi race.

  • If Hoiho win on Saturday, Pouākai are most likely 3rd.

  • If Whai win on Saturday, a three-team tie on seven wins is likely and overall points % across Rapid and Tauihi will decide places. Margins from both Rapid and Tauihi games matter.

• If Pouākai lose, they can still finish 3rd or 4th depending on Saturday and on combined points %. A heavy loss reduces their cushion in any tie-break.

Saturday: Whai vs Hoiho

This is the hinge of the round.

• If Hoiho win

  • With a Queens win on Sunday, Hoiho are 2nd.

  • With a Queens loss on Sunday, Hoiho can be 1st on points %.

• If Whai win

  • With a Pouākai loss on Friday, Whai have a strong route to 2nd on points %.

  • With a Pouākai win on Friday, Whai likely land 2nd or 3rd depending on combined points % among the tied teams.

About the margin: coming in, Hoiho hold a +10 edge over Whai on overall points %. Because Rapid and Tauihi both count, treat Saturday as a two-game swing. If Whai win the combined margin by around 11 or more, they are well placed to jump Hoiho in a tie. If Hoiho keep the combined deficit to single digits, for example nine or fewer, they are more likely to stay ahead. Exact thresholds move with Friday’s result.

Sunday: Kāhu vs Queens

• If Queens win, they are 1st and host a semi.

• If Queens lose

  • And Hoiho won on Saturday, Queens are 2nd.

  • And Hoiho lost on Saturday, Queens should still be 1st on points %, but the margin still matters even with the Queens 

Rapid note: Queens have already clinched the Rapid title, but the Rapid score still affects the overall points % tie-break for Tauihi seeding.

Recap

Queens

• Win Sunday, 1st is theirs with the homecourt advantage that goes with it.

• Lose Sunday, 2nd if Hoiho win Saturday, likely still 1st if Hoiho lose based on Points percentage

Hoiho

• Beat Whai, top two secured. If Queens also lose Sunday, 1st is possible.

• Lose to Whai, can slide to 4th on points % depending on margins int this and other games.

Pouākai

• Beat Kāhu Friday, still in the hunt for 2nd. Best path is a Whai win Saturday plus favorable margins in a three-team tie. Otherwise 3rd is most likely.

• Lose Friday, finish 3rd or 4th depending on results and margins.

Whai

• Beat Hoiho, 2nd is in play. Best path is Pouākai losing Friday. If Pouākai win, margins decide 2nd vs 3rd.

• Lose to Hoiho, most likely 4th.

Kāhu

• Cannot reach top two. In spoiler mode and can still swing other team's percentages across Rapid and Tauihi.

Why Every Point Matters

Tauihi uses total points percentage tie-break adapted to include Rapid plus Tauihi totals. Every possession in both games this weekend can move a club’s points percentage. If teams still tie after overall points %, the decider becomes points % in head-to-head games among those tied teams.

1. Higher Winning Percentage: For teams not playing the same number of games.
2. Higher Overall Points Differential (as a percentage): Calculated as (Points For / Points Conceded). This is where a team's offensive and defensive efficiency over the entire season (and critically, in their final games) becomes paramount.
3. Best Points Differential in Head-to-Head Games: This rule becomes critical for two-team ties that persist after overall points percentage (however unlikely), adding another layer of complexity that hinges on previous results between the tied teams. As seen above, these head-to-head percentages are be the ultimate decider for and tie on wins.